TEG Index at a glance
The TEG Price Index rose by 3.1 points (2.24%) in September to reach 141.6, setting another record high since reporting began in 2019. Year-on-year, the index was 12 points (9.26%) higher than in September 2025.
The Haulage Index recorded another month of notable growth, rising 3.4 points (2.24%) to reach 143.8. Artic vehicles, a subset of the Haulage Index, saw a smaller price increase, with the index rising by 1.8 points (1.3%) to 136.4. Compared with September 2025, the Haulage Index was 14.8 points (11.47%) higher.
In line with the overall trend, the Courier Index grew by 2.9 points (2.12%) in September to reach 139.5. That was 9.3 points (7.15%) higher than 12 months earlier.
Strong demand and higher fuel prices were two key factors influencing transport pricing during September.
Resilient demand keeps prices high
Despite global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, month-on-month transport demand grew by 17.48% during September across both courier and haulage services. Artic demand has previously remained flat in September, but this year it grew by 8.8% month-on-month.
We’d expect demand to have grown in September as the industry starts preparing for peak season, but perhaps not at such scale. Despite inflation and higher costs, consumers appear to remain resilient. The UK economy continued to grow over the summer and reports of August retail sales were positive.
Transport availability also grew during September, albeit at a slightly lesser pace than demand. Availability increased by 14.91%, with a similar picture across courier and haulage services. Interestingly, artic availability increased by 34% in September after a sharp decline in August.
Availability often increases in September. Driver leave ends, allowing more vehicles to go into service. It’s also an ideal time for operators to take advantage of early seasonal demand.
Consumer confidence rose for a third month
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose by one point in September, marking its third consecutive monthly increase, a pattern last seen in 2024. However, the Major Purchase Index fell by one point, which may feel unsettling ahead of Black Friday and peak season.
Reported separately, the Savings Index rose by five points. Consumers are perhaps beginning to build financial buffers in anticipation of higher costs in the coming months.
NeilsenIQ released its latest global Consumer Outlook survey of 21,000 respondents on 30 September. The findings show that 34% of consumers say they’re financially worse off than a year ago, while 30% feel better off. NeilsenIQ suggests that consumers increasingly accept economic uncertainty as a lasting reality, which is making their buying decisions more polarised. Some focus on meaningful savings, while others choose meaningful upgrades. Either way, consumers wish to justify their expenditure.
With inflation, energy prices, and fuel prices all rising, it will be interesting to see whether UK consumer confidence rises in October.
Relentless fuel price rises
September saw fuel prices climb, adding further pressure to transport overheads. The spotlight is particularly on diesel, given concerns over future supplies.
Average diesel prices rose by 10.94p per litre (6.02%) in September to reach 192.55p. Year-on-year, diesel prices have risen by 58.54p per litre (43.68%) since September 2025.
Average petrol prices weren’t far behind. They rose by 8.13p per litre (5.04%) in September to reach 169.50p. Compared with September 2025, the average price has risen by 27.62p per litre (19.47%).
Brent crude oil prices rose by around 14% in September, contributing to the sharp increase in fuel prices. Brent closed comfortably above $100 a barrel and has risen by 36% since July 2026.
Diesel supply constraints could push prices higher in the coming months. Russia has already extended its diesel export ban into October; China is considering export quotas for Q4; and US President Donald Trump has suggested restricting diesel exports. As the USA currently supplies around 30% of the UK’s diesel, such a move could quickly raise prices at the pumps.
Many experts have said that a diesel export ban would backfire on the USA’s economy and reputation as a global supplier. Perhaps Trump will appreciate the bigger picture.
Industry pulse
With CPI inflation rising from 2.9% to 3.1% in the 12 months to August, the Bank of England chose to hold interest rates at 3.75% for another month.
Motor fuel was the largest contributor to the rise in inflation. September’s fuel price rises, alongside expectations of further increases, may therefore push inflation higher in October.
The average HGV salary rose by 1.49% during September to reach £43,438. This put it above the national average salary, which stood at £42,654 last month.
Changes to the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act 2025 come into force on 1 October. These extend right-to-work checks to businesses hiring contractors or casual “gig” workers. The move could indirectly affect transport pricing, particularly in the courier market, as any resulting reduction in availability would place upward pressure on transport pricing. The legislation’s practical impact will only become clear once businesses take action.
Fleet stock levels could also affect availability, according to Kirsten Tisdale’s analysis of Motor Transport Fleet Data. While we wait for the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ (SMMT) latest registration data in October, Kirsten reported that the top 10 fleets had reduced the number of trucks on their combined operator licences by 1,152 in the 28 days to the end of August. This shift could tighten transport availability as peak season approaches.
Transport operators will now look towards the Autumn Budget on 28 October and hope for government support. One key question is whether the Chancellor will increase fuel duty as planned or scrap the rises scheduled for January, March, and April. Experts have suggested that the duty rise would simply push inflation higher as costs pass through to products and services.
Expert comment
“Forecourt diesel prices have hit an all-time high according to the RAC. But it’s no longer just about cost. It’s also about supply, following the attacks on the Saudi pipeline and threats of a US export ban.
Earlier this week, Chancellor John Healey admitted the UK only has 42 days stock of diesel. So, assuming you have a bulk tank in the yard, is now the time to have it filled but buy at the forecourt regardless of price? Then you’ll have a few days in hand should diesel supplies run even lower!”
Kirsten Tisdale – Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant – Aricia Ltd