TEG Index at a glance
The TEG Price Index rose by 1.2 points (0.89%) in July to reach 135.9. This marks a record high for the index: July transport prices have surpassed those of December 2025, when the index stood at 135.4 points. Year-on-year, the TEG Index rose by 8.5 points (6.67%).
The Haulage Index rose by 1.6 points (1.20%) to reach 134.9. Compared to July 2025, haulage prices were 8.4 points (6.64%) higher.
The Courier Index increased by 0.7 points (0.51%) in July to reach 136.9. In line with the overall index, it was 8.7 points (6.79%) higher than July last year.
Despite continued international volatility affecting the UK market, transport prices continued to follow the modest growth trend we’ve seen since May.
Availability one step ahead of demand
Transport demand grew by 0.82% during July. This modest increase followed high demand growth in June (12.37%) due to spending on summer goods and World Cup-related items. Although last month’s growth sat slightly below July 2025, a steady increase remains typical for the time of year.
Availability grew by 2.49% in July. This also followed significant capacity growth in June (16.45%).
When availability runs ahead of demand, we tend to see transport prices falling. But the difference was small last month, and fuel price volatility continues to affect pricing.
Summer optimism as Burnham becomes PM
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index was up six points in July, marking the largest increase since November 2023. Notably, consumer motivation to make major purchases was up eight points.
The latest Mood of the Nation survey by Think Insight also suggested a more positive consumer outlook. Its net optimism score rose to -39% during July (having hit an all-time low of -50% weeks earlier).
What prompted the mood shift? International football tournaments and warm weather can both lift public sentiment. The timing also coincided with Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister and hopes of a Middle East ceasefire.
Many have described a “Burnham bounce”, as sunshine and political change combined to create a wave of optimism. Hoping for an improvement in the cost of living, people have welcomed quick wins such as the removal of VAT on electricity bills from October.
While the mood has improved, consumers expect Burnham to deliver on his promises quickly, and some suggest this optimism has a shelf life. UCL Policy Lab and More in Common carried out a survey on 14 July. They found 35% of Britons want action on the cost of living within six months, while 55% expect visible progress within a year.
For now, summer optimism is helping to boost consumer demand, which is always good news for the transport sector.
Fuel watch
Average fuel prices eased once again in July, but there were clear signs of further possible volatility as oil prices swung wildly due to the Iran conflict.
Average diesel prices fell by 8.85p per litre (5.02%) in July to 167.59p. However, they remained 26.21p per litre (18.54%) higher than in July 2025, leaving plenty of room for improvement.
Average petrol prices also dropped during July, falling by 3.11p per litre (2.00%). Again, the year-on-year picture looks less positive, with prices standing 18.32p per litre (13.68%) higher than 12 months ago.
Looking at week-on-week prices in July, both diesel and petrol saw a notable uptick from week commencing 27 July, moving closer to June averages. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and international oil reserves running dry, the fuel price challenge is unlikely to ease quickly.
Industry pulse
Interest rates remained at 3.75% in July, and forecasters still expect the UK economy to grow by more than originally predicted this year. However, the Bank of England warned that rates could rise if the Iran conflict escalates.
Reports of growing retail sales, particularly online, culminated in 5% volume growth up to June this year. This would have been welcome news for transport operators.
The start of the 12-month Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) holiday for HGVs from 1 July was also positive news, saving operators around £600 per lorry.
According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), new HGV registrations fell by 14.7% in the second quarter of 2026 as operators balanced vehicle renewal against wider business cost pressures. Meanwhile, TEG's carrier sourcing platform recorded its busiest month ever in July, suggesting transport companies are increasingly collaborating to ship more loads per asset owned.
The average HGV salary surpassed the national average salary for the first time this year, reaching £42,864. At the same time, HGV vacancies continued to rise, as they have throughout 2026. This compounding problem may become particularly pronounced as peak season approaches later in the year.
And 3,500 miles away, the conflict between the USA and Iran continues to shift oil prices in both directions. At the start of July, Brent crude oil was around $68 per barrel. By 23 July, it was up 54% on the month to $105 per barrel.
Signals from the Middle East and the USA change almost daily between escalation and the possibility of peace. Although the UK cannot control this challenge, it continues to influence transport pricing and the cost of living. With US economic growth slowing, policymakers may have even stronger reasons to focus on ending the conflict as soon as possible.
Expert comment
“Internet sales were up by an impressive 14.3% year-on year in June, which included Prime Day this year, but you do need to allow for inflation. Retail sales *volumes*, including all shopping venues as well as online sales, were up over 5% - that’s volume, which is what trucks carry. That was June.
In July, the summer heat carried on and World Cup fever made it to at least half-way. The TEG indices for July all beat their December 2025 peak. That’s partly due to inflation, particularly for diesel, but it also confirms that there was continued high demand for road transport in July.”
Kirsten Tisdale – Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant – Aricia Ltd