TEG Index at a glance
The TEG Price Index dropped 0.6 points (0.42%) in October to reach 141.0, its first fall since February 2026. Despite the dip, the index has risen by 13.8 points (10.85%) year-on-year.
The Haulage Index fell by 1.5 points (1.04%) in October to reach 142.3. Artic vehicles, a subset of the Haulage Index, dropped 1.6 points (1.2%). And yet, year-on-year, the Haulage Index was up 16.5 points (13.12%).
In contrast, the Courier Index rose 0.2 points (0.14%) in October to reach 139.7. Compared to October 2025, it has risen 11.1 points (8.63%).
The TEG Index typically reaches a high point in September before dipping in October then climbing to a December peak. Despite multiple pressures, the trend has continued so far this year.
Demand drops as availability grows
Lower transport demand in October, alongside growing availability ahead of peak season, explains the fall in transport prices. But factors such as high fuel prices, economic pressures, and right to work rule changes all influence transport supply and demand.
Transport demand fell by 9.98% in October, compared to a month-on-month fall of 5.44% in October 2025. While it’s typical to see a fall in October, this year’s drop has been more marked.
Meanwhile, availability rose by 11.55% in October. That compares to 18.83% in October 2025. Deeper analysis suggests last month’s haulage availability growth was typical, whereas growth in courier availability was muted. This is perhaps due to new right-to-work rules introduced on 1 October, which impose fines on businesses that fail to verify their subcontractors have the right to work in the UK. Stunted availability growth could suggest the change has reduced courier capacity – although it is too early for firm conclusions.
Declining consumer confidence
Consumer confidence fell sharply in October, with the GfK Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 11 points after rises in July, August, and September. Both the Major Purchase Index and expectations for the General Economic Situation over the next 12 months dropped by 14 points. Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, called it “an extraordinary collapse” in consumer confidence, citing Brexit in July 2016 as the last time such a drop was seen.
This suggests summer resilience has departed, despite there being no single major shock to prompt such a change in attitude. So, is that the full story?
The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index also declined in October, falling by 1.1 points to 105.1. This was its largest fall since April and the second consecutive month of deterioration for the overall index.
Separately, the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index was down 1.1 points in October at 47.3, which was 0.7 points lower than its reading at the same time last year. Sentiment was more than two points lower than before the start of the Iran war and remained significantly below pre-war levels in 18 countries.
On the one hand, a fall in confidence isn’t surprising. With fuel and energy prices rising, consumers have reason to feel concerned. But economic indicators in the UK, while in difficulty, are not dire. The latest GDP measure (August) showed 0.1% growth.
Some experts suggest October’s consumer sentiment and economic indicators may be telling different stories. And we’ve seen this before. While the fall in consumer confidence is widely reported, peak consumer spending season is approaching. Q4 GDP data will make for interesting reading.
Fuel prices creep higher
Average diesel and petrol prices both increased in October, albeit less than in September.
Average diesel prices rose by 6.97p per litre (3.62%) in October to reach 199.53p. Year-on-year, diesel prices have risen by 56.75p per litre (39.75%).
Average petrol prices rose by 5.2p per litre (3.07%) in October to reach 174.70p. Compared to October 2025, prices have risen by 40.03p per litre (29.72%).
Brent crude oil prices settled around $114 a barrel on 28 October, up from around $100 a barrel in early October, with experts pointing to a four-year high. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said 331 million of the 400 million reserve barrels committed had been released by the end of September.
The IEA expects diesel supply challenges to persist well into 2027, although global refinery operations should start to recover later this year.
Fuel prices are clearly going to influence transport rates for some time to come.
Industry pulse
With peak season approaching, strong inflation and an expected interest rate rise could put pressure on consumer and business spending.
UK inflation stood 3.5% when the latest figures were published in September, with fuel price increases the main driver. The next UK inflation release is due on 18 November. And while interest rates have remained at 3.75% for almost 11 months, they’re widely expected to reach 4% when the Bank of England meets on 5 November. A rise would mean tighter cash flow for mortgaged homeowners and businesses repaying loans.
Black Friday (27 November) is just weeks away, with week-long discounts widely expected as Christmas spending kicks in. Will an interest rate rise hamper activity, or will festive cheer win out?
The October budget offered some support to the transportation industry, but many felt more could have been done. It was reassuring to see the fuel duty cut freeze extended to 1 July 2027 and the HGV VED £1 annual rate continued until 30 June 2027.
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) data released during October showed that Q3 HGV registrations were up 7.2% year-on-year. This marked the first quarter of growth for two years, yet the overall market remains 3.8% down year to date.
The average HGV salary crept up 0.49% to £43,653, notably bucking the national average trend, which has fallen for the last two months. HGV vacancies remained relatively stable.
All eyes will be on peak season now, and whether consumers will create the demand that typically gives the transport industry a year-end boost.
Expert comment
“Diesel continues to dominate everyone’s thoughts – not just price and inflation, but also availability.
The UK has gone from importing 16% in 2000 to importing over half of its diesel needs. 31% of those imports come from the US with 37% coming from Benelux. In late September we heard that there were only 42 days of diesel in the UK.
In late October along came Austen and Boelo, the first named storms of the autumn. Ship visits to the UK for cargo and tankers plummeted by nearly a third that week, including key liquid fuel import locations such as Milford Haven and the London ports.”
Kirsten Tisdale – Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant – Aricia Ltd