May transport prices climb further as haulage demand continues to grow

TEG Index at a glance

May saw a further increase to the TEG Price Index as it rose 4.4 points (3.55%) to 128.2. The index also increased 4.4 points (3.55%) year-on-year.

The haulage price index rose more than the overall index last month. It increased 4.6 points (3.72%) in May to reach 128.3. Compared to May 2024, haulage rose 9.1 points (7.63%) year-on-year.

Meanwhile, the courier price index rose 4.1 points (3.31%) in May to reach 128.0. This was slightly behind the overall index. Interestingly, year-on-year growth was static; the courier index in May 2024 was also 128.0 points.

For the first time since January 2022 the haulage index overtook the courier index in May: 128.3 compared to 128.0.

Looking at 13.6m artic vehicles it was another month of price rises. The 'artic index' increased slightly behind the overall haulage metric; 4.1 points (3.5%) to reach 120.0. This followed a 5.5-point (4.67%) rise for artics in April.

Analysing the haulage trend

Given the late Easter this year, some May trends were predictable. A delayed fall in haulage demand is commonplace post-Easter, and May's TEG Index reveals as much. The 2025 index therefore appears to be running a month ahead of the usual May trend for prices and could correct itself in the coming months.

The picture for artics is similar. We’ve seen a typical month-on-month rise between April and May as artic demand kept pace with overall haulage.

With demand for haulage strong and rising, we could experience a historically high peak in prices over the summer – perhaps during August. There’s even potential for that peak to surpass Covid 2021 levels, despite the environment being far less chaotic.

Other factors may be contributing to strong demand for haulage. The UK has officially recorded its sunniest spring on record and May’s two bank holiday weekends contributed to the early summer sentiment. If the warm weather continues, we can expect haulage demand to remain high.

There have also been reports of strategic shipment increases following the announcement of US tariff increases on 2 April. Two months on, with the UK one of the first countries to broker a ‘deal’ with the US and therefore offer a level of predictability, we can expect a resulting rise in incoming shipments, pushing UK haulage demand higher still.

Meanwhile, the haulage supply bottleneck appears to be easing. Looking specifically at artics, the 10% year-on-year supply drop in April was followed by a lesser 9.2% fall in May. That’s still a two-month downward trend (which does not align with 2024 supply movement).

Support for freight buyers

In the coming months, haulage demand looks set to increase, despite ongoing market uncertainty. The latest procurement technology helps 3PLs make timely, informed decisions to better manage changes in demand. TEG’s end-to-end logistics technology platform matches supply and demand in real time, helping to maximise efficiencies and reduce wastage in a highly competitive sector.

Industry Pulse

The transportation industry continued to experience inflationary pressures in May, such as a general increase in pay for HGV 1 drivers. Last month’s cut in interest rates by the Bank of England to 4.25% may ease other overheads while helping to maintain consumer demand.

Consumer confidence is certainly picking up as the sun shines. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose three points in May, with all measures increasing since last month. The ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey reflects this optimism. In the two weeks ending 18 May 2025, 18.4% of respondents thought their business’s performance would increase over the next 12 months. By comparison, only 14.7% thought it would decrease.

The impact of global tariff changes remains unclear for logistics companies. HSBC UK published a survey of 92 logistics firms in May revealing 75% predict they’re likely to be impacted by changes to tariffs and policies. 28% said they had delayed investment decisions, while 10% had decided to act quickly and bring forward investment. Meanwhile 14% felt their future plans had been positively impacted by diversifying product services and offerings or expanding into new markets.

Transport businesses have learnt to expect, anticipate, and adapt to change in recent years. And yet, regardless of global uncertainty, strong demand for goods continues. Coupled with better weather bolstering UK confidence and consumer spending, the summer season looks promising. Logistics operators armed with sufficient insight to take advantage should perform well.

Expert comment

“It’s been a very active month for road transport news: HGV new registrations down in Q1, truck repair costs up, boot camps axed, early estimates from ONS for April showing a general YoY increase in pay of 6.4% with Adzuna showing  an 11% YoY salary increase for HGV 1 drivers in May, and warnings of a doubling of cargo ships heading towards Europe from Asia as a result of US tariffs.

All of these will have an inflationary impact, even with the relatively low diesel price, so it’s no surprise to see that the TEG haulier index is up by 7.6%.”

Kirsten Tisdale – Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant – Aricia Ltd

Fuel Watch

There was more good news regarding fuel prices in May, with both diesel and petrol continuing to fall month-on-month.

Diesel prices averaged 139.06p per litre in May, which was 2.63p per litre (1.86%) lower than in April. Year-on-year, diesel prices were down 17.25p per litre (11.04%).

Petrol prices followed this trend, falling to an average of 132.40p in May. Month-on-month, they dropped 2.15p per litre (1.6%), while year-on-year, petrol prices fell by 16.41p per litre (11.03%).

With a downward trend forming again, the transport industry will hope this holds as the year progresses, providing a welcome boost to profitability.

The TEG Price Index helps freight buyers stay ahead of change. Use it alongside our Analytics and Insights module to make strategic, data-driven logistics decisions.

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