TEG Index at a glance
The TEG Price Index increased by 2.3 points (1.81%) in August, reaching 129.7. The index now sits 3 points (2.37%) higher than in August 2024.
The Haulage Price Index experienced an even greater increase in August, rising 3.2 points (2.53%) to 129.7, which was 4.5 points (3.59%) higher than August 2024.
Meanwhile, the Courier Price Index rose by 1.5 points (1.17%) to 129.7. It’s now 1.7 points (1.33%) higher than this time last year.
Coincidentally, all three price indices reached 129.7 in August, although performance differed by sector.
Heightened demand outweighs increase in supply
During August, overall transport demand increased by 6.26%, placing strong upward pressure on transport prices. Meanwhile, an overall supply-side boost (as evidenced by the number of quotes registered via the TEG platform) placed conflicting downward pressure on transport prices. While the increase in transport supply was unable to negate price increases entirely, it did restrict their advance. Had the supply shift not taken place, prices would have climbed higher still.
Looking specifically at artics, demand grew by a marked 13.31% in August. Meanwhile supply rose by 14.63%. The relative shifts in both artic supply and demand left artic prices 3.8 points (3.20%) higher than in July 2025.
Factors affecting supply and demand
With a bank holiday weekend and continued warm weather, it may be unsurprising that consumer goods were in strong demand during August. For example, on-premises drinks sales received a welcome boost thanks to the sunshine. CGA by NIQ’s latest Daily Drinks Tracker shows beer sales grew by 5% in the week to 9 August, alongside cider at 3%.
Coupled with these seasonal factors, the Bank of England reduced base interest rates to 4%, easing mortgage and loan burdens for many consumers.
Looking at supply, particularly for artics, HGV driver shortages continued as the elephant in the room. Adzuna data reported 4,027 vacancies in August, up from 3,645 in July, but down from 4,243 in June. Coupled with annual leave, many operators felt the driver-shortage pressure last month.
It’s likely that driver shortages have impacted HGV driver pay, too. Adzuna reported the average HGV driver salary rose to £42,121 in August – the second consecutive month HGV driver pay outstripped the UK national average. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), new HGV registrations in Q2 were down by 11.2% year-on-year. While this may highlight operators’ uncertainty about the economy (the most reported challenge affecting business turnover in August 2025, according to a recent ONS report), the figure, in combination with existing shortages, suggests artic supply may remain restricted for some time to come.
Industry pulse
Indicators suggest many consumers and businesses were relatively positive about the economic outlook in August, despite the future, as ever, appearing uncertain.
The GfK Consumer Price Index rose two points in August. Elsewhere, in the fortnight ending 17 August 2025, 17.9% of respondents believed their business’s performance would increase over the next 12 months, according to the ONS. Conversely, 15.8% expected business performance to decrease.
While inflation reported a surprise increase in July (from 3.6% to 3.8%), the Bank of England cautiously reduced interest rates from 4.25% to 4.0% on 7 August. Last month’s increased transportation demand certainly reflected higher consumer purchasing.
With US tariffs agreed (for now), the notable fall in UK car manufacturing we saw earlier this year appears to be recovering. On 28 August, the SMMT said UK car manufacturing had seen a second consecutive monthly rise in July 2025, with production up 5.6% to 69,127 units.
But the future is far from certain. Only last week (29 August), the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that most of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal, sparking potential for a legal showdown. And closer to home, speculation is rife about further tax rises in the Autumn Budget. Unpredictability seems here to stay.
Fuel Watch
Petrol and diesel prices both increased in August. Diesel prices rose to 142.26p per litre, which is 0.88p per litre (0.62%) higher than in July 2025 and 5.53p per litre (3.74%) higher than in August 2024.
Petrol prices averaged 134.23p per litre in August. A lesser rise than diesel, this was just 0.36p per litre (0.27%) above the July average. Year-on-year, though, petrol has risen by 8.1p per litre (5.69%).
Counter to overarching trends, fuel price increases began to ease as August closed out. With global oil prices falling, perhaps the rising price trend is about to redress.
Expert comment
“In its recent business insights publication, the ONS reported that 'Economic uncertainty was the most reported challenge affecting turnover for trading businesses in early August 2025' – that’s not just logistics, but all businesses. So, it’s a relief now August is behind us, to see the TEG Road Transport Price Indices return to a more expected pattern. The summer lull is over – let’s look forward to a busy but normal peak.”
Kirsten Tisdale – Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant – Aricia Ltd
The TEG Price Index helps freight buyers stay ahead of change. Use it alongside our Analytics and Insights module to make strategic, data-driven logistics decisions.