Good morning, and welcome to the latest edition of the TEG Transport Insights newsletter.
For the past five years running, transport prices have increased in June. The reasons why are clear: longer, sunnier days and happier moods typically stimulate consumer spending which, in turn, stimulates haulage demand.
June 2025, however, was an anomaly. Last month, while many industry insiders were wondering by how much transport prices would increase, the eventual TEG Price Index revealed transport prices had fallen, bucking historical trends. Haulage demand was down. Haulage availability was up. The industry expected certain events to unfold. The world, however, had other plans.
Riding the pricing rollercoaster
It is possible to post-rationalise why transport prices fell in June. Perhaps it was to do with the Bank of England holding interest rates steady. Perhaps higher-than-expected inflation played a part. Perhaps, after several months of running hot, in June, transport prices merely experienced a correction. We can easily hypothesise. We cannot, however, escape a reality that keeps many up at night: transport prices remain unpredictable. That makes transport planning tough.
Agility as a pricing antidote
Despite the challenges with (and frequent futility of) attempting to forecast future transport price trends, historically, the transport industry has always done as much. Should that be the case?
Recent advances in logistics technology now grant 3PLs the ability to flex and contract operations on demand; a concept known as operational agility. Key to the practice is reducing an historical reliance on owned-assets while instead leveraging a large number of dynamic carrier partnerships to cover loads. The practice does not leave 3PLs entirely immune to swings in transport prices. It does, however, offer a degree of immunity. This month, agile 3PLs will be free to negotiate more favourable rates with carriers. They will also be absolved of the responsibility to fill empty vehicles.
Enhancing operational agility will not help anyone more accurately forecast the future of transport prices. It will, however, help 3PLs react to swings. The TEG platform can help.
James Mead
